Thursday, February 4, 2010

Bates 2010

2009 Recap: 2009 was a trying year for Bates as they managed only four wins. However, they did manage to finish the season with a win over rival Colby. Offensively, the Bobcats were paced by senior attackman Tyler Moore who netted twenty-four goals and one (one?!?!?!?!) assist, stripping Thomas McDonnell of Amherst of his title of highest goals to assist ratio with an unhealthy twenty-four, a number that continues to blow my mind. Passing in general seemed to be a struggle for Bates, as the highest assist total registered by any one player was a staggering eight. These dismal assist numbers plus the Bobcats woeful record makes a pretty strong case for the argument that you can't run an isolation offense with mediocre (and that's probably generous) players. The defensive end may have actually been worse for Bates, where frosh keeper Adam Scharff stopped a meager 47.6% of his shots, though he is undoubtedly not solely to blame for this. How the NESCAC coaches thought it was a good idea to give all-NESCAC to anyone from the Bates defense is beyond me. I'm out of negative words to use, so let's move on to 2010.

2010 Trend: Downward

What's hot: Um...yeah...not too many reasons to be optimistic here. I suppose Scharff can't have a worse statistical season, can he? Maybe he makes a leap in his second year. Bates could really use it.

What's not: Just about everything. They need to replace the only player who could consistently score goals for them last year and shore up a porous defense. This is a multi-year rebuilding job that will take some serious recruiting to rectify all the deficiencies. Fortunately, Bates should be almost a lock to have a number one overall draft pick in 2010...what's that? I already made this joke with Williams? Crap, I got nothing guys.

What we should be talking about: The 2013 season; The other nine teams in the NESCAC

Conn College 2010

2009 Recap: Watch out Trinity, Conn was my 2009 NESCAC sleeper and to say the least, things did not go as expected. A reasonably talented team lost three games early in the year (Trinity, McDaniel, Amherst) that crushed the Camels and it was all downhill from there. Collapsed under the weight of expectations simply doesn't do the events of 2009 justice. Conn was only soundly beaten in two games (Wesleyan and Bowdoin), hanging tight with Middlebury and Tufts but always coming up short. They suffered more than their fair share of injuries, most notably all-NESCACers Mark Moran and Jesse Stevenson, but even this does not excuse what transpired. Simply put, 2009 can only be chalked up as a lost year for a program that appeared to be on the rise.

2010 Trend: Upward

What's hot: Junior attackman Ryan Hayes quietly compiled seasons of 39 and 49 points in his first two years at Conn and could be poised to step into a leadership role on offense. Defensively, the Camels return most of their significant contributors with the exception of graduated senior captain Ben Stahl. Even with Moran gone, the goalie job appears to be in safe hands with two sophomores competing for the starting role. Both were high school all-Americans and saw some playing time last year and appear capable of providing solid goalie play as long as the defense steps up their play from the debacle that was 2009. In a nutshell, the talent is there for this team to return to respectability, but as 2009 painfully illustrated, it takes far more than talent to be successful in the NESCAC (if you're not convinced, just ask my favorite punching bag, the Middlebury Panthers).

What's not: This team has to avoid the problems that plagued it in 2009 if it is to be successful, and sometimes it is harder to identify and rectify problems that aren't talent related. It isn't as simple as recruiting better players. Attitude, motivation and determination play a huge role in who wins games between two teams with similar talent levels. Not to sound like a corny sports movie, but teams must fight for every ground ball and hustle at all times if they want to successful against teams with equal or greater talent. The onus is on the players to bring that fire. If Conn does, they could be dangerous and should fit right in with Colby and Trinity as a second tier team that is capable of challenging the elite. If not, look for another long season of losing. On a less Remember The Titans-esque note, Conn won 38% of its faceoffs in NESCAC games. This obviously needs to be improved for Conn to be successful, and that improvement can be facilitated with a change in attitude, if not personnel. Getting Dan Gallagher back from injury should help last year's primary FOGO Chuck Czerkawski, who was simply overworked taking nearly every faceoff every game, particularly in the second half of the year.

What we should be talking about: Is the Camel the most random mascot in the NESCAC; The role that team records play in all-NESCAC recognition; How Conn's grass field is the most inhospitable field this side of the Birdcage, at least on Saturday afternoons; Why every team in the NESCAC is white and blue (really guys? isn't the NESCAC all about intelligence and creativity?)

Preseason Top 20 poll

1. Salisbury
2. Cortland
3. Stevenson
4. Denison
5. Haverford
6. Gettysburg
7.WNEC
8. Tufts
9. W&L
10. Roanoke
11. Bowdoin
12. Wesleyan
13. Middlebury
14. Naz
15. St. Lawrence
16. Ithaca
17. Geneseo
18. Lynchburg
19. Cabrini
20. Trinity

See http://network.laxpower.com/laxforum/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=38543 for further comments and analysis.

Amherst 2010

2009 Recap: 2009 was a solid year for the Jeffs, winning pretty much every game they were supposed to. Of course, the caveat to that is that they lost the games that they were supposed to lose, although they did manage to keep many of their losses close. Offensively, senior attackman Brett Miller did most of the heavy lifting, scoring ten goals and dishing out twenty-nine assists as the primary creator. Amherst's offense generally boiled down to Miller initiating a dodge from behind the cage, looking to bang the ball inside to Thomas McDonnell (33/4/37) or rotating the ball quickly up the wing for a dodge from one of of the Jeff's midfielders, usually Milone, Redwood or Fox. Defensively, Amherst was led by senior keeper Matt Pietroforte, whose impact cannot simply be measured in statistics. He played an instrumental role in aligning and instructing his defense, in addition to being the emotional leader for the team. Whoever wins the starting gig this year has to replace much more than just Pietroforte's ability to stop the ball.

2010 Trend: Downward

What's hot: The Lord Jeffs return a decent amount of points, including an elite finisher inside in McDonnell and some talent through the midfield, namely Milone, Redwood and Fox, the latter two of whom posted strong freshman campaigns. Unless there is another Brett Miller waiting in the wings (which seems unlikely), expect the Amherst offensive strategy to shift to a system based more on dodging through the midfield. As long as McDonnell is inside, teams will have to be very wary of cheating too much on their slides lest the dodger zip a quick pass to McDonnell for an easy dunk. The best defenses get a good jump on their slides through smart off-ball play, putting a premium on players like McDonnell who can finish under duress and keep a defense honest in their slide package.

What's not: It is far easier to say that the Amherst offense will shift its orientation to the midfield than to actually see it function in practice. Milone, Redwood and Fox managed only 22 combined assists last year, and only time will tell whether or not they have the requisite skill and vision to function effectively as both dodgers and feeders. If Amherst can't get the ball inside to McDonnell, they will struggle to score enough goals to win games. On defense, there are huge shoes to fill in goal as well as at close defense, where two starters graduate including talented defender Chris Fitzpatrick. Considering these challenges and the fact that this isn't an overly deep or talented team, it seems unlikely that 2010 will yield a better year than 2010 did.

What we should be talking about: Who came up with the mascot of Lord Jeff; How many points Thomas McDonnell would have if he played with D.J. Hessler; Whether or not McDonnell has the highest goal to assist ratio in the NESCAC among players who scored at least twenty points; Why a small guy like Redwood got significant run as a defensive midfielder in addition to his offensive duties; What color scheme would be better than purple and white (pretty much anything)

Monday, January 4, 2010

Colby 2010

2009 Recap: Colby's solid season ranked as the second most surprising team performance in the NESCAC last year. Led by a stud FOGO in sophomore Craig Bunker and a two-headed monster at attack with Caddy Brooks (MVP of the all-Name team) and Whit McCarthy, the Mules managed to qualify for the NESCAC tournament. Their signature win came over Bowdoin in a 9-8 OT thriller. However, they struggled to compete with the other members of the NESCAC elite and suffered embarrassing losses to Conn and Bates, surprising results for a team that did an excellent job against mid-tier teams with wins over Trinity, Amherst and Williams.

2010 Trend: Stationary

What's hot: Any time you can win over 60% of your faceoffs, you have a chance to win any game. Craig Bunker is easily the most important player to this Colby squad as he always gives them a chance to respond after an opponent scores or to score again quickly after a Colby goal. Whit McCarthy returns, providing a proven scoring option to an offense that is going to be looking for someone to step up, especially through the midfield. McCarthy is not a complete player offensively and will have to show that he is a threat with both hands or defenses will have an easy time dealing with him. Of course, Coaching Jesus returns as well, providing the Mules with a strong hand at the helm.

What's not: An already sub-par defense loses its senior goalie. He wasn't a great stopper but did seem to do a solid job directing the defense, none of whom stood out individually. The same challenge of replacing an experienced goalie that many other NESCAC teams face is Colby's as well.However, the most damning loss is the graduation of Caddy Brooks. Whit McCarthy may have had the gaudy numbers last year but it was the gritty play of Brooks, dodging hard to the cage with both hands and absorbing checks then often dishing to McCarthy for either a time and space shot from the wing or a redodge. Without a two-headed monster at attack, Colby's offense will be more predictable.

What we should be talking about: Whether or not Thompson will walk on water at some point during the season; Who will be taking Caddy Brooks' spot on the all-Name team; The possibility that Colby was pretty average last year; Why so many Colby fans showed up on this forum in the past year; How important Craig Bunker is to this team

Trinity 2010

2009 Recap: Yes they were boring and ran at a pace that wouldn't scare a tortoise, but they only lost one game all year by more than three goals (Wesleyan). Still 2009 left something to be desired, especially with losses to Amherst and Colby and a first round exit from the NESCAC tournament at the hands of Bowdoin. Senior Graham Fadden was a pleasant surprise in goal, garnering second team all-NESCAC honors on a team that featured no defensive standouts. On offense, Trinity had the only offense that ran its plays through one player (Harper Cullen) more than Wesleyan did with Follansbee. Cullen did an admirable job shouldering a heavy load, gouging opposing teams despite an utter lack of other offensive talent with the exception of a few mediocre role players.

2010 Trend: Upward

What's hot: Harper Cullen is back and ready to make it rain more than Pacman Jones at a strip club. There is little mystery to the Trinity offense, prescribing iso after iso to Cullen. Unless Coach Finley managed to conjure up a decent sidekick for the third best offensive player in the NESCAC last year (after Stone and Hessler), I would expect more of the same strategy. This isn't necessarily a bad thing and given the weakened sate of Middlebury, Wesleyan and Williams, it could land Trinity in a position to make a surprise run for a NESCAC championship.

What's not: Losing Fadden after such a strong season hurts and it will most likely fall to sophomore Pete Johnson to fill those shoes. Johnson was a great high school goalie, but the transition to college lacrosse can be a challenge for gaolies in particular. Trinity had better hope he acclimated himself last year or else stall ball is going to fail miserably because they won't be able to keep opponents from capitalizing on a higher percentage of possessions. Trinity also needs to find someone to replace the very solid Connor Wells, whose proficiency at the X furthered the success of stall ball.

What we should be talking about: Who the hell is intimidated by a Bantam (or half the other NESCAC mascots for that matter); The fact that you better not walk outside the wrought-iron fences when visiting Trinity; The fact that the captain of the Trinity soccer team is an accomplished rapper; No seriously; And yes, he's white; Whether Harper Cullen ever gets mistaken for Cullen Harper

Williams 2010

2009 Recap: The beginning of 2009 boded very poorly for the Ephs, who dropped to 1-5 on five close losses to five very good teams. Then, in a serious case of "deja vu all over again," Williams mounted a furious run to the NESCAC tournament, punctuating the end of the regular season with defining wins over Bowdoin and Wesleyan before falling to Middlebury in the regular season finale in a reasonably close game. It seemed that for a second year in a row that this squad was peaking at just the right time. They even drew a favorable first round opponent in Wesleyan, who they had recently dispatched with relative ease 9-5. Alas, the Cardinals came out and exacted swift retribution in an 11-5 thumping that ended the Ephs' season on a sour note.

2010 Trend: Downward (Which is an understatement)

What's hot: They return a talented offensive midfielder in Matt Cranshaw who provided a strong complement to David Hawley last year and have some young attackmen like Sam Hargrove who contributed in supporting roles as freshmen. Second team all-NESCAC defenseman Andrew D'Ambrosio returns as well. Anddddddd....that's about it.

What's not: Gerbush? Graduated. Morrissey? Graduated. Hawley? Transferred. Williams isn't Middlebury in terms of roster depth. They can't just reload and replace three of the NESCAC's best (although Hawley was slightly overvalued by many) with the next iteration of recruits. Gerbush was a stud in cage (1st team all-NESCAC) and Morrissey was a freak athlete capable of completely dominating any game with his play on the wing, in transition and on the defensive end. Even Hawley, who struggled at times last year, was so instrumental to the Williams offense that any game plan for defending the Purple Cows centered on keeping the ball out of his stick lest he launch one of his signature 20 yard lasers past your goalie. Cranshaw is going to have to shoulder an extremely heavy load this year and it is definitely up in the air as to whether or not he is capable of doing it without other teams being forced to worry about Hawley first, second and third. Williams will be lucky to finish above 9th, and I fully expect them to make a play for the number one pick in the 2010 draft...wait...there's no reward for finishing in last? Crap, the Ephs are screwed.

What we should be talking about: How underrated of a color combo purple and yellow is, especially when paired with black; the 2011 season; Whether or not David Hawley will even get significant minutes at Brown; The fact that Williams is probably a better school than Brown by a smidge; How screwed the Ephs are; Who is going to be unfortunate enough to play goalie for this team because he's gonna see a lot of rubber

Bowdoin 2010

2009 Recap: Bowdoin circa 2009 was somewhat of an enigma. Playing one of the toughest schedules in the country, the Polar Bears registered a respectable 10-6 record en route to a semifinal loss to Tufts. This was a team that boasted two very talented midfielders in Kit Smith and Cullen Winkler, a solid attack and a strong defense led by Boomer Repko and Brian Holden. So what kept the Bears from greatness? Inconsistency in goal. Make no mistake about it, when he is on his game Jake McCampbell can be a stone wall. He posted six games with a save percentage of .650 or higher. Unfortunately for Bowdoin, he also posted six games with a save percentage of .550 or lower. Not by a coincidence, these were the six games that Bowdoin lost. Obviously, the difference in save percentage cannot be entirely attributed to McCampbell, but it is clear that he needs to greatly improve his consistency if Bowdoin is to compete with the offensive powerhouse that is Tufts.

2010 Trend: Upward

What's hot: Kit Smith is a force. He's big and powerful with decent speed and stick skills.. He has the potential to be dominant in a special way if he makes certain nuanced improvements to his game. The challenge in this is that Smith is also a hockey player which detracts from his preparation from lacrosse and will undoubtedly limit his impact. On the defensive end, when McCampbell is hot Bowdoin is in any game they play, no matter the opponent. Given the weakened states of Middlebury and Wesleyan this year relative to in the past, the skids are greased for Bowdoin to make a run for the NESCAC title.

What's not: Replacing Repko and Holden is a stiff challenge, further emphasizing the need for improved play from McCampbell. Kit Smith is going have to bear a heavy load on offense with the losses of Ashforth and Winkler. I have not seen Bowdoin's schedule yet, but if they have to run a gauntlet of tough games like last year they may be setting the bar too high. A more balanced schedule would be in order.

What we should be talking about: How ugly Bowdoin's horizontal black and white striped shorts were; What the hell Cullen Winkler's parents were thinking when they named him Cullen Winkler; Whether or not it's fair to declare that a new era is upon us if Tufts and Bowdoin meet in the NESCAC championship game; Does Jake McCampbell have multiple personality disorder?; Are there actually Polar bears in Maine?; If so, should visiting fans be worried?; Who would win in a fight between a polar bear and an elephant?

Middlebury 2010

2009 Recap: A loaded offense. A solid faceoff guy. An underrated senior goalie with strong leadership qualities on the field. What was this team missing? Oh yeah, a defense. Oops. Close your eyes kids, this one got ugly. For the second year in a row, the perennial juggernaut that is the Middlebury lacrosse program fell flat on its face when it really mattered. There was no NESCAC championship for the Panthers, who lost despite having the single best player in DIII lacrosse whose uncanny ability to rip rope in the waning seconds of close games was put on display time and time again. Unfortunately for the Panthers, there were far too many of those close games including Bates, Amherst Trinity, Conn and Williams coming within three goals of beating them. Perhaps this is a testament to the depth of the NESCAC, but it seems to be more that Middlebury is slipping given the results of the past two years. They only won two NESCAC games convincingly all year, a 15-10 victory over Colby and their victory over Wesleyan in the NCAA tournament.

2010 Trend: Downward

What's hot: Certainly not the weather in Middlebury nor the expectations for this program. They have lost a TON on offense, which was the key to their degree of success last year. In lieu of rolling out Mike Stone and company to rain rubber down on opposing goalies, the Panthers are going to have to rely on a more balanced approach that incorporates a slower pace of play than in the past in order to give this young defense a chance to forge some kind of identity. Obviously, there is still a fair amount of talent in the program given the ease with which Middlebury can recruit. It's just that Middlebury needs to play things a little closer to the vest because of the combination of Middlebury's recent decline and the increased parity in the NESCAC. Which brings me to...

What's not: If I were a Middlebury alum, I'd be afraid, very afraid. Two years, two very talented teams, zero NESCAC championships. The bar is set so high for this program that this result cannot be construed as acceptable given the context. I have no beef with Dave Campbell, but he is fast-approaching a point where his job could and should be in jeopardy. Teams as talented as the past two Panther teams shouldn't have so many problems winning big games. What could happen with an even less talented team this year? I smell the potential for a disaster followed by Campbell being told to exit stage left. This is not a guarantee or even the most likely scenario, but something that has to be considered. In my opinion, Middlebury has reached a pivotal point in determining its role in the NESCAC and it seems like the Panthers are about to step back and become one of the ten teams in the NESCAC as opposed to being the singularly dominating force of past years.

What we should be talking about: Whether or not Coach Raba sent Coach Campbell a thank you card after winning the NESCAC championship; How freaking good Mike Stone was; The chances that David Hild scores an unassisted goal this year (I'd say about 1:100,000); How freaking good Mike Stone was; Is Pete Smith capable of carrying a heavy load on offense?; How freaking good Mike Stone was; How much Midd will miss Pete Britt; The impact of not being able to make Tom Petty jokes anymore; How freaking...oh you get the idea

Tufts 2010

2009 Recap: After a modest 2008, the Jumbos exploded onto the scene in 2009 with the help of some serious production by D.J. Hessler, the only player even mentioned in the same breath as Mike Stone. While Hessler is fare more mortal than the now-graduated Stone, his talents paired with two ideal running mates at attack and very good team defense put the Jumbos in the NESCAC championship game where they lost to Wesleyan. Like the Cardinals, Tufts fell in the NCAA tournament in dissapointing fashion to a team (WNEC) that they had already beaten.

2010 Trend: Upward

What's hot: Upward? Didn't they finish in second? Oh that's right, the big honkin' elephants of Tufts University are my pick to take the 3rd Annual Dave Campbell Charity Giveaway featuring the men's lacrosse NESCAC championship. I suppose winning the NESCAC championship can be considered "hot." Yes, we all know they lost Harrigan, Yarboro, McNally and other important pieces, but they do return Ryan Molloy, the man who barely edged out Gabe Kelley for most underrated player in the NESCAC. The offense will be fine even with some depth issues through the midfield simply because Hessler really is that good. Tufts also has my absurdly early choice for NESCAC ROY, attackman Andrew Fiamengo, who has the ability to take some of the load off of Hessler. When two of your three (Wes, Midd, Bowdoin) major competitors for the NESCAC championship have serious holes at close defense, having a loaded attack will do a lot for you.

What's not: Harrigan was a solid goalie who can be replaced in terms of shot-stopping ability, but his intangibles such as leadership and communication will be sorely missed. The lack of a proven goalies only worries me when Tufts play Bowdoin and Conn, the only two teams that seem to be capable of legitimately slowing down the potent offense the Jumbos have assembled. A hot Jake McCampbell or Mark Moran (the two best goalies in the league when they are on their game) has the potential to stop any offense in its tracks. Without the ability to score a ton of goals, the potential is there for Tufts to lose because they won't be as stout defensively. However, such a concern is minor given that both Moran and McCampbell were wildly inconsistent last year.

What we should be talking about: The derogatory nature of the term Jumbo towards overweight elephants (Hey this is the NESCAC, where activism is in vogue); the impact of losing one of the best names in the NESCAC from their roster (Clem McNally); which substances influenced those who chose baby blue and brown as the school colors; whether it would be appropriate protocol or not to present Dave Campbell with an honorary NESCAC championship after Tufts wins in the spring; where to get D.J. Hessler's NESCAC POY trophies for the next two years inscribed.

Wesleyan 2010

2009 Recap: This spring was a landmark season for the Cardinals. Although they eventually fell to Middlebury in the NCAA tournament, Wesleyan captured its first ever NESCAC championship. Even with only a decent keeper in Borerro, they were stout on defense, led by the best close defenseman in DIII, Spike Malangone. Offensively, it was all too often a one man show as nearly every possession went through Russ Follansbee when he was on the field. The methodical, plodding offense that was run served its purpose, but it often seem as Wesleyan failed to utilize some of their other offensive weapons.

2010 Trend: Downward

What's hot: Graduating Follansbee hurts, but it should allow for a bit more offensive diversity. Expect Killeen, Blumenthal and the younger Malangone to pick up some of the slack. Will Froats get some runs on O? Definitely an opportunity for a freshman or two to step up. In any case, a new look on offense could do Wesleyan some good. The Cards also do a little addition by subtraction with the graduation of Borerro, provided they can find someone who can at least replicate his results.

What's not: Unfortunately, not all losses are so kind. The only returning longpole is the LSM Gabe Kelley, probably the most underrated player in the NESCAC. Rebuilding a defense that predicates its success on cohesion and execution will be a major challenge for Coach Raba. Expect growing pains at both ends of the field.

What we should be talking about: How a team with such ugly uniforms (black jerseys and red helmets? BLEH!) won a NESCAC championship; Whether Wesleyan will beef up their 2010 schedule to give them a better shot at the tournament.